The NFT market has crashed, but some people think things are going to get a lot worse if we enter a long recession.
Supposed ”blue chips” like BAYC, Cryptopunks, Doodles, Cool Cats are all down significantly from their peaks, and more projects are delaying their launch because of market conditions. It’s not looking great at all, but to be fair it isn’t an NFT specific situation; we’re seeing all markets melt as investors grapple with a changing macro economic climate.
In this video I discuss the common argument that NFTs will do worse than other markets if we hit a long term recession, and that their entire existence might only be a product of a bull run that went too long.
What people are really referring to is the expected drop in consumer spending that happens during recessions. This is true, but as you’ll see there are huge shifts in consumer behavior that will more than offset that weakness in overall demand.
NFTs will benefit from a migration of entertainment and luxury goods from the physical world to the digital, and all the signs tell us that we’re about to see an avalanche of products coming from some of the largest consumer brands in the world, something that would surely increase the addressable market for NFTs (not hard to do given how small it is currently).
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0:00 start here
1:08 why experts think NFTs will keep crashing
3:22 the HUGE shift in consumer behavior (important)
5:56 luxury goods are a big deal
6:59 RIP offline spending
8:06 the short term death spiral…
9:14 the coming buyers market
10:58 the big question
Well guys here we are if you’re seeing This video right now chances are you Survived the great thanos snap this week Where we lost about half the value of All our nfts taking a look at the market We can see that barely any collections Have been spared okay cool cats are at Four eighth from eight a month ago world Of women are at 4.5 eth from eight Invisible friends are down to five Boarded yacht club down to 93 and so on I don’t know about you but i am battered And bruised and even the right click Savers aren’t showing up anymore and i Kind of miss those guys now to be clear It isn’t just nfts right the stock Market has been crashing crypto’s been Crashing tech companies are laying People off in droves the world is on the Brink of an economic recession so Everything is down but for some reason And we’ll get into the argument in a Minute the pundits are saying that nfts Are gonna have it worse off than any Other markets if we do go into a Recession some people are saying that This is just the beginning and that They’re all straight up going to zero And as a result people are getting Spooked and selling even more so today We’re gonna talk about what happens next Okay we’re gonna get into the bull and Bear case for the next few months and I’m gonna give you an update on how i’m
Playing the market for the coming weeks Okay so the real question we wanna Answer is are things going to get worse From here and the common wisdom that You’ll hear from economists like nassim Taleb goes yeah it’s going to get worse And here’s why number one nfts are a Product of too much money in the system Which in turn is a product of money Printing and a bull market that just Went on for too long and liquidity is About to dry up people are going risk Off bada bing bada boom nfts enter the Pantheon of fads alongside beanie babies This common wisdom does have some holes In the logic but before we get to that Let’s talk about what this line of Thinking actually gets right okay it Makes total sense that when the economy Gets scary when more people lose their Jobs and the easy gains seem to be gone When that happens people get more Defensive the mood changes and people go From growth investing to preservation And they also go from smashing the like Button to no we still smash the like Button regardless of the macroeconomics Nice try but anyways in this environment It’s usually the more speculative Investments that get hit the hardest and This is where people think that nfts are In big trouble so as josh brown puts it On the reform broker blog he says if There’s a massive crash and recession
There’s going to be a lot less funding Games to be played with inflated coin Prices and collectible bs that no one Really needs people are going to batten Down the hatches and stop lighting their Money on fire at open c or coin base They’re gonna stop treating their Savings like a video game if stocks get Cut in half and the economy’s Participants all decide to get risk off In their posture and their allocation Decisions the coins are going down way Down you cannot have an iq above 100 and Not understand this damn well now how Does this get applied to nfts well if we Think about nfts in their simplest form There seem to be maybe three core Motivations there’s entertainment There’s luxury purchases and long-term Collecting which is all basically a Social layer and then there’s Speculative investing or if you’re extra Spicy you can go as far as to just call It gambling so right off the bat it’s Clear that the gambling energy will take A huge hit during a recession and you Could say that this is maybe the primary Driver behind the current nft meta so Just how speculators are running away From meme stocks like gamestop which is Down almost 50 from march you’ll also See speculators run away from nfts Because the easy gains are over however When it comes to these social and
Entertainment pillars this is where i Think the nfts are all going to zero Argument starts to break down because it Completely ignores the huge underlying Trends that are gonna be driving nft Growth in the coming years you see nfts Are not a mature market where you’re Fighting for that incremental consumer Dollar and your audience is already Maxed out you know it is in the movie Industry what it is is a brand new Technology that is benefiting from a Major transition and what that Transition comes down to is the Following people are now spending a Third of their lives online and this Number will keep going up this behavior Changes how people value things that Exist online and in virtual worlds now i Won’t get too deep on that trend because I have covered it before but if you want To deep dive on the entire nft thesis You can check the video that i put up Here the point is that consumer Behaviors are changing and as a result You can have total consumer dollars Going down during a recession and yet at The same time have nfts growing Significantly and let me show you an Example so if you follow the video game Industry you’ve seen that over the past Decade there’s been a big change in Their business model while 10 years ago The majority of revenue came from
Selling physical units today it mostly Comes from digital sales of cosmetic Items subscriptions and battle passes if You look at a specific publisher like ea You’ll see that this has led to a shift In their product mix you see over the Last couple of years packaged goods Revenue has been declining consistently Every quarter and this is basically when You buy a game at best buy or gamestop On the other hand digital revenue is up Consistently because consumer behaviors Have moved towards spending more money On digital add-ons than on the base game Itself if we hit a recession ea’s total Revenue is likely to go down because Gaming might take a hit but their Digital revenue may still keep going up Because it’ll continue to eat away at Their legacy physical business over the Next couple of years we are going to see A similar shift in consumer behavior Towards nfts and we’ll see entertainment Dollars flow out of traditional products Like physical toys games and into nfts And metaverse products take disney for Example which is finally taking their Metaverse strategy much more seriously And recently ex-disney ceo bob iger came Out and said when you think about all The copyright and trademarks characters Disney has and the nft possibilities They’re extraordinary this is true Across basically all large entertainment
Companies and when you realize that Today nfts account for basically zero Percent of their revenues you’ll realize How much upside there still is and You’ll also realize that they’re gonna Keep launching nft products even if we Go into a recession it’s also gonna be Big for the companies in the luxury Goods market as well remember we said Luxury consumption is already a big part Of the nft space so when you see someone Buy a rare mutant ape for seven figures They’re not really as focused on the roi Of being able to flip this as much as They care about the status symbol of Owning something this coveted is that Ridiculous Maybe but then you’d also have to say That the real world luxury market is Just as silly i mean people are spending 300 billion dollars a year on jewelry Basically buying gems and diamonds to Wear at social events it’s actually a Staggering market and you can assume That because of that shift towards more Time being spent online we’re gonna see An increasingly larger percentage of Dollars that are being spent on exotic Cars on diamonds on fine art etc that’s Gonna start moving towards digital Luxury goods which basically didn’t Exist until last year this is why Virtually every luxury brand is trying To get ahead of this because they see
What’s coming and they do not want to Get left behind like blockbuster did When people started to watch movies Online instead of buying dvds all things Considered some funds like arkhamvest Have said that they expect offline Consumption to peak midway through this Decade and then decline thanks to web3 And in contrast online expenditures are Likely to grow at an annual rate of 28 Percent to 12.5 trillion dollars in the Next 10 years technology transitions Aren’t new right but here’s the Difference if we go back to ea and their Product transition you’ll see that the Revenue still stayed with them whether It was physical or digital it went to The same corporate bank account the Difference with nfts is that a lot of The value is going to leak from those Centralized players to the collectors And creators themselves and this is why People are so excited right because There’s this decentralization of value And more people get to share in the Upside so in other words the idea that Nfts are just a fad and that we’re going To laugh about this 10 years from now Ignores the fundamental shift in human Behavior that is going to disrupt some Of the biggest markets that we have okay So i bring this up because i want to Show that you can hold two ideas at the Same time right that during a recession
Consumer spending could decline a lot But at the same time nft spending could Increase but it’s not all rosy right Because if you can recall the gambling Element has played a big role in the Space up until now and that likely Fizzles out during a recession which Likely leads to an exodus from a Majority of the speculators in the Market today and this will have a big Impact on the rest of the market so Let’s run through that first off the Smart money at the top will start Pivoting away from gambling on random New profile pick collections and they’ll Move into other verticals like art Blocks one of one art or if they do stay With profile pics they’ll just park it In with blue chips that already have Some name recognition or maybe they just Stay on the sidelines either way this All has trickle-down effects because now The traders in the mid-tier collections Lose faith that the smart money is going To come and save them and they lose Patience and just start selling even More and when the mid-tiers can’t get to That next stage they start burning out They run out of money or the creators Just lose interest and walk away because Of all that traders start to mint fewer Projects because the easy games are gone Which means more projects go with Incomplete mints or they die immediately
After minting out things can really Start spiraling out in the short term But once things stabilize i think we’ll Find that we went from a seller’s market To a buyer’s market what i mean is that In the past year if you had a decent Project with even some credibility Behind you sometimes you didn’t even Need that it was pretty easy to mint out Your collection buyers just wanted to Get on that damn white list because they Knew that you could make easy profits by Flipping even low quality collections And from a buyer’s perspective if you Did anything other than full tilt yolo Mode you know you were just being a Boomer and this obviously led to rug Pulls and scams and generally just kept Everyone in a constant state of fomo but Now buyers have to be more choosy and so For the first time ever they’ll stop Buying projects that don’t check off all Those boxes that you would expect from a Blue chip so for the first time ever People will start caring more about the Team pages and whether the founders Doxxed or not they’ll want more Transparency around the money raised and They’ll want safeguards in place to make Sure that the founder can’t just walk Away with the money this is actually Healthy for the space in the long term But it does mean that in the short term If you’re an amateur creator it does
Make it harder for you to compete Basically guys we’re starting a new Season and if you’re using the logic From the prior season you’re bound to Get wrecked but i do think that there Will be opportunities to score big wins And there’s going to be new blue chips Emerging even if we have a recession Specifically in the second half of the Year i do expect a lot more high quality Creators to come into the space you know There’s all these really talented people At these major entertainment companies That can really peel away and make a lot Of money and still drum up a lot of fomo For their project at the same time we’re Gonna see an evolution in what nfts are Capable of and we’ll move away from just Seeing them as static objects which if You care about the technology is Actually pretty cool but anyways to Answer the original question of will Things get worse from here well it is Extremely hard to see where the economy Goes in the short term in fact morgan Stanley recently said we live in the Most chaotic hard to predict Macroeconomic times in decades but the General consensus is that the economy Will get worse and when i look at the Market i still see gambling i still see A lot of people following into projects That we all know are not going to do Well long term so i still see room for
More pain because people are just acting As if things are going to bounce back Immediately because that’s kind of what It’s always done in recent years Personally i’ve been selling my mid and Low tier collections from the prior Season to build up some liquidity for Whatever comes next i’ll still keep Poking at new projects but right now my Portfolio is getting concentrated around Two or three collections if you don’t Own any blue chips right now i would say Maybe just chill on the sidelines for a Bit you know there’s no rush and if the Music does stop again and you’re holding One of those weaker projects you’ll Realize that the downside could become Extremely violent as for this channel Nothing really changes this is still one Of the most exciting emerging Technologies of my lifetime and i’ll Continue to keep updating you guys on How the meta is changing alright guys That’s it for today thanks for watching And i’ll catch you at the next video
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