There’s a mini bull run starting in the NFT space for the first time in a long time.
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0:00 START HERE
2:00 reason #1 for bull run
3:24 the BLUR effect
4:18 airdrop city
7:17 Azuki spirits
7:54 something is off…
10:01 scam pump?
Nfts are pumping more than they have in A very long time now I'm a little late To this I'm not gonna lie but in my Defense I was out for a week with kovid But the important thing is that I'm back Now and we're together again and for a Change we can talk about nfts not Crashing into a pixelated pile of fire And Ash but instead showing some signs Of life and you know even the Toads on My wall are starting to look like Sophisticated Modern Art once again so Let's talk about why nfts are pumping in The first place how long this might last And whether or not this is a scam pump Without any real fundamentals and we're Going to start very high level here and Look at the open c monthly volume so as You can see this has been pretty much Down only since April okay every single Month has had lower volume than the Prior month that is until December baby Let's go We're back we're back what can I say That's right December was the first Month since April where we had Month-to-month volume growth okay even If it's just a little bit but if we look At the all marketplaces views so not Just open C we can see also that since The end of December the volume has been Pretty much up and up okay every single Day has been higher than the last and Yesterday was the highest of the mall
Today is this last column here uh it's Not over yet but it's also looking Pretty good already now if we look at The collection level we can see that This has been a pretty well distributed Uh growth right so if we look at the Seven day change a lot of double-digit Growth you name Yacht Club 26 board Apes 13 azuki 19 Goblin Town 43 Doodles 13 Valhalla 34 and so on and as you would Expect people on Twitter have started to Feel jolly and Merry and they're having A good time and you know this is because It's been a long time since we've have This sort of breath of life people have Been getting their faces ripped off for Six months now and it's good to feel Good however things are not quite as Rosy as they might look like on the Surface but before we get to that we Have to talk about why nfts are pumping In the first place because there are a Couple reasons that come to mind the First is simply that we're seeing a Bunch of big announcements across some Top Collections and they're all lining Up on the calendar like they're going to Produce one big beautiful moment of Utility and for example the first one That comes to mind is Board of yacht Club which is releasing what they're Called an interactive nft on January 11th now we don't know a ton about this Other than you know it's an interactive
Nft but this is their first big drop Since they release other side in April And whenever yugalabs does something the Entire space pays attention so this is Going to be a big event Then you have azuki where there's a Rumor that on January 12th they're gonna Announce something for their one year Anniversary now this is just a rumor but There have been a lot of big purchases For zukis over the past few days and you Know usually nfts what you'll find is That there are always some big purchases Leading up to some big news there's just A lot of insider trading there's no way Around it and so that does you know lend Some evidence to the fact that there Might be actually be something announced And then you have Doodles which has been Revealing new utility for their Duplicator for their Genesis boxes that Are coming out next month and so in General big collections big Announcements and that could be enough To just bring more people back into the Space now the second reason why we're Seeing higher liquidity has to do with The marketplace called blur now some of You may have heard of blur some of you May have not essentially it's an Aggregator marketplace where you can buy Nfts are listed on openc on looks rare On x2y2 all in the same place and you Can also list nfts through the blur
Marketplace and often without needing to Pay royalties when you buy nfts and that Has become one of the major use cases For blur now blur is a very smooth Platform okay it's a very nice user Interface a lot of features that I Prefer over openc I know other Traders Do as well but that's not going to be Enough to justify why new liquidity is Entering the space okay all openc is for All intents and purposes good enough I Mean they have been improving over the Past few months and I don't think you Can say that there are whales that are Holding back sweeps because of they Don't like the navigation on openc or Something like that but blur has been Doing something else to incentivize Activity on its platform something very Clever uh and it has to do with these Care packages okay so what they've been Doing is they've been releasing air Drops of packages for the most active Traders on their platform and eventually You'll be able to convert these care Packages into the blur token when they Release that later this month along with Their governance protocol okay and They've released two so far and the Third one is about to come out soon and It has a unique set of rules okay so how It works Well Luckily they have a tldr for those of
You who don't understand some of those Basic math okay I got you now points are Rewarded to bids on collections based on The collections 24 hour volume okay so How it works is they want you to make Offers or bids on existing nfts okay Within a collection the bids that take The highest risk earn the vast majority Of points I.E if the floor is 1.01 and There are 100 bids at one and ubid 0.99 Then your bid won't earn much points Because there's 100 eth of buy walls Ahead of you but if you bid at 1.01 You'll earn a lot more because now You're taking the most risk okay so Basically they just don't want people to Game the system by putting up a bunch of Fake bids at lower amounts where you Know no one is practically going to take It uh and so they want you to be you Know bidding at the very top near the Actual floor price and have that spread Be as narrow as possible so that you're Actually going to tempt some people to Potentially take your bid and this has Had a big packed on the market okay so If we look at their leaderboard for Example these are the people who you Could say have been farming this airdrop And if you click in through you know Some of these profiles what you'll find Is that they're making a lot of bits Okay as you would expect they're Basically spraying bids across dozens of
Collections all the big ones that you Might know Doodles Pudgies Etc and if a Lot of people start doing this you get What you'll see here which is the top Bid column and you'll see that a lot of Collections have bids that are very Close to the actual floor price in some Cases is actually above the floor price And that's that's simply because you Know this is going to include some nfts That have been banned on other platforms But if you ex remove and exclude all These band nfts what you'll find is that The spread is pretty thin between the The top bid and the floor price and what This does is that it starts to impact The behavior of collectors who might not Even be farming the airdrop who might Just be buying and selling nfts just Regularly because this now gives them Some downside protection in case you Know the collection were to spiral they Now have a better chance of getting out In time okay and this might even be just A psychological thing just seeing that You have more bids on on a collection Might mean that you're willing to take Higher chances and more bets and risks Than you otherwise wouldn't okay just Because you're seeing that people are There to offer you a way out now you can Debate how much of the current Bull Run Is coming from this blur effect I Personally think it has at least some
Effect but it can't explain everything Okay for example there have been a lot Of big purchases across some collections Like azuki over the past few days as you Can see here a lot of you know above six Figure purchases some above a quarter Million dollars including this one Spirit that sold a couple days ago for 350 000 okay none of that has anything To do with blur okay this is just whales That have become more bullish on ozuki In general and so there are a bunch of Other reasons why nfts are doing well Right now these are just a couple that Came to mind mind but really what I want To talk about now is something that is Concerning me okay and that is where This liquidity is coming from or better Yet where it's not coming from and where It's not coming from is new nmt buyers Okay if we look at this tweet by Punk 9059 this chart looks at new wallets Making a first nft buy for prices to do Well we need new collectors entering the Space or it's just the same people Jumping from Project to project and as You can see here this has been pretty Much a downward Trend uh of Wallace Making first nft buys since the Beginning of the year okay it's just Been downward since then and what that Tells us is that a lot of the activity Is not coming from new people it's Coming from existing Traders now this
Doesn't mean that there aren't new People entering the space that are Minting other projects as we know Reddit Has been bringing in a bunch of new Wallets I think they're up to six Million wallets now and a lot of that Has happened in the last 60 days okay But we haven't been seeing a crossover From those new users into the secondary Markets into this volume that everyone Is talking about when they refer to a Bull run another piece of concerning Data are the Google trends for nfts okay As you can see people really aren't Searching for nfts aside from this Spike That we had earlier in the month when People were looking at Donald Trump nfts I even did a video on that but in General they're not searching for it Okay so most of these collections still Have yet to go mainstream so yes this Would all feel better if there were new People entering the space But even Without that there is still obviously a Lot of sideline Capital within crypto That had been perhaps waiting to see When nfts would bottom before Re-entering their favorite collections Okay and we could be seeing just a bunch Of patch traders that are coming back And are feeling more comfortable Spending larger amounts than it would Have even three months ago now how long This little run can last oh who knows
Okay last year we tended to see nft mini Bull runs that would go a few weeks if You believe in this blur effect they're Going to be pumping up their airdrop you Know for the rest of the month uh in Terms of the collections a lot of the Catalysts are going to last the next Couple of weeks and so this could last For a few more weeks or maybe it just Ends five minutes after I upload this Video okay no one really knows but one Point that I want to make is that Sometimes you can't really tie a simple Cause and effect as to why nfts are Rising okay and just because you don't Understand something doesn't mean that It's a scan pump where whales are trying To trick people to come back in so that They can use them as exit liquidity I Think on one hand yes if you're looking At this as pure financial instruments Then there hasn't really been a big Change in the fundamentals and so from That angle maybe it doesn't make sense But there's a layer on top of the Financial stuff where on some level this Is also a game okay and these collectors Really do enjoy collecting and trading Jpegs but instead of the game being Played on Nintendo or Xbox the console In this case is Twitter and the Scoreboards are people's Galleries and Collections where they can show off the Nfts that they have or maybe even the
East balances if the Traders just care About making money and the seasons if we Think about like fortnite seasons are The different new narratives and Catalysts that bring energy back and Make people you know return and have fun Even if it's just temporary and finally The players the ones that are playing The big nft game at this point are just The hardcore users okay over the last Six months the Casual players left the Chat a bunch of them maybe figured out That they didn't actually enjoy this Game they were looking at it maybe as Pure Financial things and you don't want To do that maybe they just ran out of Money and couldn't play anymore point is That they left and the people that are Playing now are just the hardcore users And just like any online game that you May have played this one's gonna have Ebbs and flows okay some months are just Gonna have more engagement than others Just like any other game uh and in those Games you know the developers would see The data for what's actually happening Behind the scenes but from the player Perspective it's all just hidden away Okay in this case it's all open Blockchain it's all open data and so People can see what's happening and they Try to analyze and say well why is this Week higher than last week and so on but Really a lot of this is just not
Quantitative and nature okay you know it Could just be small narratives that are Bubbling up from Twitter in this case All we can really say is that a lot of What's happening is a change in mood Across these hardcore users as opposed To the user base growing as a whole Which to be honest I would say would be A stronger piece of evidence that this Run-up would be sustainable okay Personally I'm not buying heavy into This in fact I'm selling some nfts from Prior gen collections but this does show That some of these collections have Staying power which is pretty cool and Also this is the first breath of life That we've had in a while so you might See builders finally bring the drops That they've been holding back okay Because we do know that a lot of Builders just withheld their drops and And new innovation because the space Just seems so dead and so now that it Finally seems alive again maybe we will Start seeing a lot of that Innovation Come back into the scene anyways that's All I got for today let me know what you Think is this bull run sus is it here to Stay are you buying more nfts drop it in The comments below and I'll catch you Next time
