NFTs are going through a hard transition as the bear market wipes out the meta that has dominated the space over the past year.
PFP roadmap collections, which have made up the vast majority of all NFT volume to date, appear to be losing influence fast. Why? Because bad habits and poor creative decisions that were covered over during a bull market are now showing obvious weaknesses.
In this video I go over why this is happening, what we can expect from the upcoming lineup of NFTs and then WHY I’m actually very excited to see the developments that emerge out of this transition in the coming months.
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0:00 start here
0:50 NFT clown hell
1:48 the collapse in PFPs
5:42 why I’m actually excited
7:32 the next 100 drops (depressing)
8:23 my north star as a collector
Hey guys so a couple of days ago i Reviewed over 100 upcoming nfts just to Get a feel for where the market might be Going next and what i found was that Surprisingly it’s one of the worst Upcoming lineups that i’ve ever seen but At the same time it might be one of the Most exciting periods for nfts in over a Year now i know that probably doesn’t Make much sense hopefully it does by the End of the video but we should start With giving a little bit of a market Update because you see this week was Maybe the lowest point for nfts in all Of 2022 at least on ethereum volume has More or less dried up at this point and A lot of collections continue to be in The red basically liquidity in that 2 to 10 eth mid-range is gone and so the Chances of you buying an nft for .5 eth And then hitting a 10x by flipping it For 5 eth is getting more and more Difficult by the day as a result all Those flippers that are looking for Those 10x gains have been banished to The land of nft’s below 0.2 eth which if We’re honest has turned into an absolute Show you see over the last couple of Weeks people have been minting and Trading the most ridiculous things they Can find they hold these nfts for maybe 20 minutes hoping someone else is gonna Take the hot potato from them and Eventually the music ends and people
Rush over to the next nightmarish and Cringy meme a lot of these star as free Mints and then after a week or two you Can get them for free again this time on Openc from ashes to ashes it’s almost Poetic so ladies and gentlemen Apparently this is the current state of Nfts okay you spend a couple of hours Watching the value of your so-called Blue chip nfts and your crypto go down And then you switch over to burning Money by trading ponzi’s in the sunken Place with your friends unless of course You happen to own a goblin in which case You’re probably having a blast but Potentially at the expense of your Reputation actually fight like were you Guys thinking about Now why do we have all this chaos well That’s because over the past few weeks There’s been a dramatic shift away from What used to be the bread and butter of The nft space and that’s the 10 000 Profile pick road map collection so this Has been at the heart of all the volume That we’ve seen over the past year and It’s looking like it may have finally Run its course okay we knew the day Would come and that day is looking like Today and let me try to explain what i Think is happening and i’m gonna use Doodles as an example and i know doodles Is one of the most successful profile Pic collections so it’s a little weird
To use as an example but i know you’re All familiar with it and this is just For an illustration so when doodles Launched last year it launched as this Big collection based on a cute template That has all these randomly assigned Traits okay had no real backstory no Real depth to the brand and this is Coming from a doodles holder right it Was really just the individual nfts and Some nice looking social media assets And a website and as a buyer the thesis Kind of went something like this hey That’s a good-looking identity Collection why don’t we form a community Rally behind it maybe use it as our Profile pics on social media and then Hopefully the devs are going to build More things for us and the idea kind of Worked right it was like if you just Start with some cool looking art then You get attention behind it and the devs Will start building additional layers of Value on top of that arc all you need to Do is get the ball rolling and then you Can hire people to start riding the lore From scratch you can build out Additional collections to invite others Into your community you can buy Metaverse land to start virtually Training people to smash the like button Over and over again and so on eventually Like in the case of bordeaux yacht club And hugo labs you can convert all that
Attention into huge funding rounds and Then use those resources to build Increasingly more interesting products And basically an entire ecosystem we can Think of the timeline working roughly Like this so first you start with a Polished or cool looking art collection Then you flesh out the brand so this is The world building then you airdrop new Nfts and technically this is an Expansion but it’s also dividend for Holders and then finally you develop Greater products and maybe an entire Ecosystem this has basically been the Nft space in a nutshell over the past Year partly due to the success of bored Apes but like all trends this one has a Life cycle and it didn’t take long for The nft space to beat this one to death At this point we’ve seen essentially Every profile pick variation possible From cute animals to stick figures and Even fine art most of today’s top Collections that we call blue chips have Followed the same path but in my opinion It’s likely coming to an end or at the Very least it’s going to be harder to Sustain because it turns out that if Your core value proposition is simply Just that you have cool or you know Clean looking art that just isn’t enough To maintain attention over a long period Of time so more likely than not you’re Attracting speculators who are betting
On a future airdrop or something like That instead of people who are true fans Of the brand because how could they be True fans of your brand if there’s no Storytelling or any emotional connection That differentiates it from the 50 other Projects that are launching that week We’ve ignored almost all the key Features of successful evergreen brand Building from i don’t know the last few Centuries plot lines conflict character Development fun the reason why these Have been sacrificed is maybe because Most of the time creators aren’t really Targeting people that might be fans of What they’re building right they’re Targeting flippers or speculators Because maybe the higher priority is Just selling out and maintaining a Short-term floor price it is however Just one opinion and it’s an opinion That’s coming at the lowest point of the Market right so it’s possible that i’m Over correcting and overestimating the Impact that it’s gonna have on this Trend you know everything just seems to Be having a shade of gray right now Because we’re in the eye of the storm But from my perspective things just Aren’t looking great long term for this Specific trend but now here’s the good News that comes out of all of this okay And i truly believe that this is good News you see for the first time in a
Long time we’re gonna see builders feel That you know they’re free to truly Experiment without having huge Opportunity costs like if you were Making an nft project over the past six Months you knew that there was this Template that was reliably leading other Creators to success that template was The profile pic roadmap meta these were A fairly defined set of rules and it Made sense why people kept following Them and by the way using the template Didn’t mean that success was guaranteed It wasn’t sufficient but it happened to Be the case that most of the successful Projects did follow it so if you were Someone that wanted to experiment and Deviate from that path i mean you Totally could and many people did but by Doing so the opportunity cost was that You know if you had even some talent you Were probably giving up an easy bag of Money by not following that meta Likewise many collectors had no choice But to play the meta because of how much Easy money there was to be made and so Even if you did make something that was Experimental You know it was hard to get their Attention because they didn’t have the Time to pay attention because of their Own opportunity costs now that there’s a Breakdown in that profile pick meta we No longer have a clearly defined path to
Success and as a result the opportunity Costs of trying something new are a lot Lower both on the creator side but also On the collector side so what does this All mean well i think it means that We’re gonna see a new wave of creativity Being pumped into the market okay and That means exploring new mechanics it Means more patient storytelling instead Of just fomo drops and it means more Free mints so that you know the creators Don’t get their bag on day one and get Tempted to rug or to lose focus it’s Honestly going to be great for the space You know much better than another six Months of just endless profile pick Variations but it’s gonna take time and I saw this firsthand when i was Reviewing those 100 upcoming nfts Because what i found was that a lot of These collections were still running on That old meta which makes sense because Project development takes time and a lot Of these builders haven’t had time to Adapt now i don’t want to call any Projects by name because you know most Of these have honest builders and i Don’t necessarily want to see them fail But i do see you know an incoming wave Of projects that are probably going to Underperform at least relative to what You would have expected a couple of Months ago some of these might have Temporary honeymoon periods after
They’re mint because a lot of collectors Don’t want to lose that meta but i think In most cases gravity will overcome and Reality will set in that’s not to say That the meta is completely dead and That it’s impossible that something will Emerge and do very well it just means That you know the water line for the Average project won’t be nearly as high As it was before at the end of the day As a collector your north star hasn’t Really changed right you’re still Looking for projects that can generate Attention consistently maybe reach Critical mass and then leverage that Attention to then create other Opportunities and those opportunities Hopefully feed back into the attention And that creates a flywheel that maybe Helps your brand go mainstream what has Changed is that that template that was Laid out by board apes you know a year Ago is no longer the most reliable way To build that attention machine this Means that success could keep coming From weirder and weirder angles and for Example we continue to see a resurgence Of activity around nouns even though It’s been around for a long time and i Wonder what other projects people will Flock to now that we don’t all live in This cloud of fomo where the only thing We pay attention to is the pump of the Week alright guys hope that was helpful
And i’ll catch the next video
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