In this video I go over my checklist for finding NFTs that could potentially hit 10 eth or higher (azuki, bayc, moonbirds, cryptopunks, cool cats, doodles, world of women, cyberkongz, veefriends).
First off, realize that this is a probability game, and that even with the best strategies you’re still going to buy many NFTs that will drop in value, or perhaps crash completely to zero. All we’re trying to do here is develop some heuristics that put the odds in our favor.
What you’ll realize is that a big part of figuring out whether a project has legs is looking at the traction that it’s currently getting and then determining whether the quality of that attention is high or low. That means understanding what factors represent ”low quality” attention, meaning what factors tend to only attract newbies and not whales or ”smart money”.
This will help you avoid a lot of the traps that lead to buying NFTs that have a hard resistance at 1-2 eth, and that’s more than half the battle.
I also go over the common factors that we’ve seen across the blue chip NFTs that are already dominating the space and how that might help us find the next big project.
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0:00 start here
1:22 two different games
3:21 the traps to watch for
6:25 the blue chip checklist
7:10 judging the MEME
8:13 judging the GROWTH VEHICLE
11:12 how to find blue chips early
So there i was coming up with some Subtle youtube thumbnails when i noticed A reply to one of my tweets my tweet was Basically saying that there are two Different checklists when it comes to Nfts there’s one you use when trying to See if an nft can get to one ease and One you use to see if it can get to Tenny and i received a lot of the same Replies what’s your 10th checklist What’s your one attendee checklist give Me that damn checklist and no one gets Hurt alright that last one wasn’t real Look i watched one sopranos clip and now My entire youtube feed is just mobsters Getting whacked in jersey diners but Look you get the gist and so i was like Okay cool that’s a video idea right how To spot nfts i get to 10 eth that’s Pretty useful and it is something that I’ve done before so i do think that i Have some tips in my first year in nfts I managed to buy boarded yacht club Azuki doodles cryptos cool cats curio Cards solana monkey business and genesis Legions all of which at one point hit The 10th mark or 10th equivalent some Kept going well beyond that some pulled Back hard but my average buy-in across All those nfts was a little over one Eighth now that doesn’t mean that i Don’t also make a ton of mistakes okay I’ve missed out on endless opportunities Including not minting v friends and
Clone x even though i was right there at The mint and i also passed on cyber cons And world of women early on the good News is that all those mistakes have Helped me refine my strategy and my Filters to help me maybe get a better Chance of picking the next 10x or 100x Nft so with that said let’s get into it And the first thing i want to cover is Something i’ve also talked about in the Past which is that you can almost think Of nfts as two different games right now Okay you have the market below to eat And you have the market above to eat the Actual line doesn’t really matter it’s Not meant to be super accurate but this Is a good framework to use but what i Mean is that generally there are some Stark differences between the high end And the low end of the market okay at The low end you are normally dealing With a less sophisticated buyer base and Just consider that the nft market Doubles basically every three to four Months and so you do get these new Traders that have less money they have a Worse understanding of the market and so They tend to come in for new mints or Just nfts below maybe one or two e now I’m not saying they’re dumb okay we all Have to start somewhere but i am saying That they’re basically white belts and More prone to mistakes in contrast the People who buy above to eat tend to have
A little bit more experience they tend To be a little more savvy with markets Maybe they made their money with defy or Crypto trading or they earned in some Other industry before this again i’m not Saying they’re smarter you know it could Be that they just inherited money or They just got really lucky but in General it tends to be a more Sophisticated buyer now why does this Matter well because regardless of who The buyer is there’s one thing they can Both agree on and that’s that a like Button should never be left unsmashed so Guys you know what to do no but really It matters because the factors that Appeal to buyers at the low end are Often going to be very different than The factors that appeal to buyers at the High end and we are going to get into Those factors in a minute but in general This makes sense right if you’re buying Something for 2eth and hoping that it 10xs then at that point you’re hoping That one day someone’s going to spend 20 Or 25 eth on this and so it has to be a Jpeg worthy of spending six figures Whereas at the lower end if you’re Buying something for .07 eth and hoping It gets 2.7 eath which would still be a 10x that might be an easier task because All you have to do is convince someone To spend still less than one eath on a Jpeg so with that said let’s look at
Some of the factors that really Influence a project at this lower tier First off new buyers seem to love flashy Art the flashier the better oh you have A 3d model and it’s walking around that Sounds like generational wealth to me You have bright colors and thick-sided Lines inject that right into my veins That’s why a lot of sketchy projects Tend to follow the same type of style Okay because they’re targeting less Sophisticated buyers and this is what They think blue chip nfts should look Like okay another big factor is going to Be influencer pumps so celebrities can Still impact even top collections okay One of the biggest run-ups in bordeaux Club happened after justin bieber bought His eight but in the market below two Eth you just have a much wider cast of Characters that can have an impact okay It could be any moderately famous person For the 90s or any current d-lister it’s Like yeah your project’s pretty good but You know what would make it even more Interesting if we got that guy who Played mr feeny on boy meets world to Retweet it or how about hagrid can we Get him to show some play to earn game For us seriously think about how many Tick tockers have tens of millions of Subscribers if you never heard of them And think about that impact that they Can have on a collection of just you
Know 5 000 tokens okay next we have Copycat metas so we’re never going to Have a 28th collection called something Like kid zuki but can it hit .5 eth Also probably not but we have seen some Of these do well before like larval ads Which did get up to around 0.7 eth at One point and yeah all nfts are inspired In some way by other nfts but true Copycats meaning that they just rip off Their name or try to ride their hype a Little too much they just don’t go very Far because sophisticated buyers are Always going to prefer just having the Original okay another factor will be Ponzinomics so here i’m referring to Some mechanics that you’ll find in some Popular play to earn games today okay so Maybe you’re taking nft you’re staking It for some passive tokens there’s Probably not much underlying utility and Not much fun involved at all and so You’ll get a ton of people who start Tweeting about how they’re making Passive income you know a thousand Dollars a day and that encourages more People to just pile in and so on and so Forth and these aren’t textbook ponzis But they are unsustainable and now Sophisticated buyers have caught on and So they tend to not buy in at higher Prices because they know that it’s hard To maintain it at that level okay one Last factor that does well at lower
Tiers would be unrealistic road maps Let’s take video games as an example so You may have noticed that a lot of these Nfts tend to promise that they’re going To make a video game tied to their nft Down the road not just like a social Game but a large-scale virtual world That can scale up to millions of players Now to be clear this is one of the Hardest things you can do and even most Game developers fail at it despite Dedicating their lives to this yet if You don’t know anything about game Development which let’s face it most nft Buyers don’t then you wouldn’t see a Problem with a team of 20 year old Marketers saying that they can get it Done and do it well however the higher The floor price goes the fewer buyers You’re gonna find that you can convince Unless you have some really unfair Advantage like a ton of resources to Hire the best people or you already have Some a tier developer on your team okay So those are some of the many factors That influence an nft at the lower price Points but now let’s focus on the second Category which are nfts that can get up To 10 eth or more for this i’m going to Focus on a specific category of nft Which are the profile pick collections Or more broadly we can think of them as Metaverse identity brands and the way i Look at it it really boils down to two
Different sets of factors you have the Meme and you have the vehicle and we’ll Go through these one by one but under The meme you have the art and you have The story and then under the vehicle we Can put the founder the strategy and Resources and what you’re basically Looking for is a 10 out of 10 in either Category or as close as a 10 out of 10 As you can get otherwise you could get By with just decent scores across all These factors but it’s better in my Opinion to have at least one that’s Outstanding so let’s start with the meme Okay with profile pics yes the r is Going to be a big deal but it doesn’t Have to be super stylish or even be you Know very technically impressive okay it Just has to resonate with people if you Look at some of the most popular cartoon Brands you’ll see that the styles are All over the place and they don’t have To be beautiful works of art to get a Huge following to be honest we haven’t Had a blue chip profile pic emerge Simply because the r is amazing okay It’s just not enough and on top of that You also have to have a story that goes Along with the meme okay and this is Going to be the why of the brand Basically what is the nft supposed to Make you feel and what is the signal That it’s sending out okay is it Supposed to be cool is it exclusive is
It counter cultural and purposely weird Okay this is all part of what you’re Buying if you look at azuki for example I do think they’ve done a good job with The story they’re a cool brand that is Going to be metaverse first there’s an Anime angle to the story there’s a Gaming angle where they have these super Smash stations at their parties so these Are all the signals that you might be Giving off when you rock an azuki Profile pic okay now let’s talk about The vehicle aka the growth vehicle the Thing to know here is that when you’re Buying into a roadmap based profit Collection Generally what you’re buying into is a Product with a singular mission if we Take a look at nouns which is one of the Most successful profile pick collections That i don’t think people talk enough About they actually make this more Explicit than any other collection i’ve Seen here we have the founder in the First line of the first medium post Saying nouns is a protocol for Proliferating nouns when you think of The utility of these prophotic brands if You’re thinking just about the next Airdrop that you’re gonna receive or how Many tokens you can get if you stake it Or if you get excited when you see a Convoluted map like this one you’re Thinking way too small the real
Long-term utility for me in my opinion Is owning a genesis piece from a Collection that goes truly mainstream Okay a franchise that people recognize And love even outside the context of Nfts if that does happen then it’s Pretty likely that you are going to be Rewarded in some ways even if we’re Thinking of just the collectible value Of the genesis tokens with that in mind I don’t see how you can have a bull Thesis on a profile pick collection Without considering how it might go Viral and that pathway that strategy is The vehicle so what are some examples of Vehicles well one obvious one would be The creator or the founder take moon Birds for example okay hit 24 eth within Its first week after launch partly Because people have so much belief in The collection’s founder kevin rose or With boarded yacht club it was clear Early on that the founders yuga labs had Insane execution and people started to Make big bets on that you really can’t Stress this enough okay what we’ve seen Is that you know across all the top blue Chips having a strong team is a pretty Consistent factor okay you have cyber Cons azuki doodles boarded yacht club The only exception really is crypto Punks which you know they get to lean on Being a historically significant Collection and there aren’t many of
Those okay next off we have the strategy So how exactly do they plan on growing The brand okay are they gonna make a tv Show are they gonna make a game and if So What are the chances that they can pull It off right do they have an unfair Advantage or maybe they’re letting the Community grow the brand okay this is The strategy with cc0 or public domain Nfts like cryptos and i think that if in The future we do see a blue chip with Apps and founders it’s likely to come Out of one of these public domain Collections this is because we know from The past that memes like pepe the frog Can get incredibly viral without a big Push from their founders and they can Just take on a life of their own and Become virtually everywhere okay another Big factor are the resources basically Do they have a lot of money okay if we Take nouns for example they have Somewhere around 70 million in their Treasury or moon birds where the team Now has 65 million after that mint plus Many millions more from royalties that Kind of money goes a long way right Because now you can hire the best talent You can have the biggest irl parties you Can invest in sophisticated products and So on okay so that’s a general checklist But how do you actually spot one of These nfts before they blow up well
Basically you want to look for organic Traction okay and this is not that Different than if you were to invest in A startup where the founder usually Begins with a mvp or minimum viable Product which is basically an experiment To find out if your product actually Clicks with customers before they add More features and invest more money into It and if it does get traction they Often approach angel investors they show Them their progress and the angel might Cut them a check to get to the next step I think we have this in nfts as well and The genesis collection is pretty much The mvp right it’s a test of how much Demand there exists for that brand and When something does get a bit of Traction whether that’s on social media Before mint or in terms of sales after The mint your job is basically to Determine what the level of quality is For that attention and this is where That zero to two checklist is important Because you want to see if it’s popular Because of those reasons that tend to Attract less sophisticated buyers but Which will lead to the collection Hitting that wall at one to two each so Let’s take an example okay one of the Most hyped upcoming collections is Imaginary ones this one has a ton of Traction nearly 500 000 followers Already which is very rare for an nft so
It begs the question why are people so Into this at this point you start Running through the checklist okay it Has very flashy art with some movement And maybe this is a little more Attractive to newbies then you head over And you look at the road map and you ask Okay is there anything outstanding here And do they have a realistic strategy For making this one of the biggest Brands in the space and sustaining that Attention then we head over to the team Page and we ask okay what have they Accomplished so far have they ever done Anything at this scale and if not is There any reason to believe they’re Likely to hit a home run with this one Again what i’m trying to figure out is Can they create a sustainable attention Machine that can also attract people That are investing at much higher price Points if the answer to that is no well It doesn’t mean you should just ignore It you know because there still could be A short-term trading opportunity but now You’re playing a completely different Game altogether bottom line here is that Even with this checklist it’s a very Imperfect science you’re still going to Buy a bunch of nfts that end up fizzling Out and all you’re trying to do here is Just to put the odds in your favor even Just a little bit and as usual this is Just looking at mts from an investment
Angle right you can be buying nfts just Because you like the art or maybe Because of some other utility that they Offer alright guys i’m gonna end it here Thanks again for watching i hope that Was helpful and i’ll catch you the next Video
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